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Why 5G will be disruptive

Why 5G will be disruptive

With more spectrum and friendlier small cell regulations, 5G will have the wind at its back.

Every next-generation mobile phone standard is greeted by some skepticism. Fifth-generation technology has certainly endured its share. Critics say it’s just a collection of incremental improvements, is being used as an excuse to restrict competition (for instance, by banning Chinese vendors from the US market), and will drive up prices.

However, in a report published by my company in collaboration with Rysavy Research, we conclude that 5G is uniquely positioned to enable new products, services, and business models. While no next-generation technology is a panacea, 5G’s flexible and scalable architecture comes with expansive new spectrum and rules easing the deployment of small cells. That’s a powerful combination.

Take a closer look at the new spectrum allocations being made in anticipation of 5G. Up until mid-2016, the total amount of spectrum available to US mobile phone operators was about 750 MHz. In July of 2016, the FCC allocated 3,850 MHz of new spectrum in the 20 and 30 GHz bands for 5G. That single action increased the amount of spectrum available to mobile operators by more than 500%. And we aren’t done yet: The FCC has begun proceedings to allocate additional licensed spectrum for 5G, and operators have been testing the use of unlicensed spectrum in the 57-71 GHz band.

Press Release Broadband2

Press Release Broadband2

Report Announcement from Datacomm Research and Rysavy Research:

The Cost of Building Out 5G Wireless Is Not as Bad as Some Think

November 13, 2018 – St. Louis, Missouri – Business Wire – Estimates suggesting that 5G networks will be too expensive fail to consider that operators have a wide choice of deployment strategies, that recent regulatory changes ensure small cells can be built and operated economically, and that operators can make extensive use of existing infrastructure. That is just one conclusion of the 71-page, second edition of Broadband Disruption: How 5G Will Reshape the Competitive Landscape, a collaborative report released today by Datacomm Research and Rysavy Research.

“Wireless operators have different 5G strategies, and our report shows how they can leverage factors such as spectrum and cell density to achieve specific coverage and performance goals,” said Peter Rysavy, co-author of the report. “We also examine the cost of building 5G infrastructure, various financing options, and the viability of 5G fixed wireless broadband business models given different deployment scenarios,” he added.

Networks for a yottabyte world

Networks for a yottabyte world

The future requires networks that are qualitatively more flexible, scalable, efficient and manageable. Network function virtualization and software defined networks are the way forward

The rate at which telecom networks are growing and changing is nothing short of fantastic. It’s always risky to embrace a new paradigm, but for network carriers and customers, the risks of waiting could be greater.

Network function virtualization (NFV) and software defined networks (SDN) represent a radical departure from the traditional way of building, managing and evolving telecom networks. It’s often described as a switch from proprietary boxes to commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware. While there is a potentially significant cost-savings in making such a switch, cost-savings is not the main driving force. The ability to quickly implement new business models, to deliver applications on demand, and to automatically provision and tear down resources are what make NFV and SDN so potentially disruptive.

Not your father’s networks

The growth in telecom traffic over the last 25 years has been mind-boggling. Since introduction of the Mosaic web browser in 1993, Internet traffic has grown by a factor of 10 million. Since the introduction of the iPhone in 2007, mobile data traffic has grown by a factor of 1,000.

Digital transformation and 5G product development

Digital transformation and 5G product development

Most enterprises see digital transformation in terms of customer experiences and business models. Digital is also quietly changing the way products are developed.

Most of what you read about digital transformation focuses on customer experiences, business model agility, and the effect that all of this has on enterprises — particularly IT departments.

Less widely recognized is the fact that digital technology is revolutionizing product development and management. Makers of smart products are using digital tools to speed prototype development, facilitate manufacturing and product testing, and enhance life-cycle management.

Products are generally becoming smarter. We now have smart TVs, smart speakers, smart refrigerators, and even smart sneakers. The most ordinary products can be made “smart” by adding Bluetooth beacons, RF ID tags or QR codes that provide information or links to webpages.

Which 5G path leads to robust growth for mobile operators

Which 5G path leads to robust growth for mobile operators?

The following was originally published on September 5, 2017 as an analyst angle piece at RCR Wireless News:

Mobile operators have reached a critical juncture. According to CTIA – The Wireless Association, there are 396 million devices connected to mobile networks in the U.S. Nearly everyone has mobile phones (about 80% smartphones), the percentage of wireless-only households has surpassed 50%, and mobile operators are adding more “things” (such as tablets, cars, and machines) to their networks.

If mobile operators expect another decade of vigorous growth, then they must look beyond phones. They must also choose carefully: The wrong decision could lead to stagnation and decline.

The two biggest growth opportunities are the internet of Things (IoT) and internet and TV to the home.

Why 5G will be a game changer

Why 5G will be a game changer

As impressive as the improvements have been with each new generation of cellular technology, the step from 4G to 5G will be more profound than any before and, by the end of the next decade, will reshape the broadband landscape. Specifically, 5G networks using mmWave frequencies will leapfrog over the capabilities of today’s hybrid fiber coaxial networks. As analyzed and quantified in a report I recently completed with Datacomm Research, “Broadband Disruption: How 5G Will Reshape the Competitive Landscape,” three technical innovations are converging to deliver unprecedented performance.

First and foremost, 5G will gain access to vast amounts of new spectrum. The first in a series of auctions in the United States targeted for 5G will allocate 3.85 GHz of licensed spectrum. Compared to today’s 750 MHz of licensed spectrum, this is a gigantic 500% increase. Second, small but powerful base station antenna arrays using massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) will be able to focus the radio signals into narrow beams, not only extending the range of the signals but also permitting multiple simultaneous beams, increasing spectral efficiency. Third, a small-cell architecture, inherent to the shorter range of mmWave signals, will further increase capacity by reducing the coverage area of each cell and, consequently, the number of users sharing the same spectrum. Our analysis shows that these innovations will result in almost three times the annual gain in wireless network capacity over the next 10 years compared to the average annual gain over the past two decades.

The resulting networks will prove formidable, crossing the chasm holding back today’s 4G LTE wireless networks: namely, the inability of most consumers to cut both the television cord and the broadband cord. 4G may have the throughput to support high-definition streaming, but such streaming can consume 1 Gbyte per hour, quickly bumping into the constraints of today’s unlimited plans, which throttle traffic after about 20 Gbytes. In contrast, 5G in dense deployments will not only be able to handle today’s TV viewing on large screens but will also scale to support ultrahigh-definition and even greater data-consuming applications such as virtual reality.

Such dense deployments will require hundreds of thousands of small cells nationwide. Verizon, for example, stated that it might eventually need 8,000 to 10,000 small cells in Boston alone. The small cells will also need much denser fiber networks than currently exist, but technology advances will help. For example, 3GPP is studying a 5G capability called Integrated Access and Backhaul, with which a cell can use a 5G radio for backhaul, even relaying traffic through other sites. Thus, only a subset of sites will need a fiber connection. Siting for small cells may also become more accessible as the FCC and state governments act to modernize rules. Combined with other innovations, such as support for mission-critical applications, low-power IoT, and distributed computing that extends to the network edge, 5G will transform multiple industries.

A case in point is fixed wireless access, one of the first major use cases. Verizon is trialling prestandard 5G in 11 cities this year. Questions remain about the exact cell density needed and the precise effects of different residential layouts and landscapes on mmWave signals, but all of these challenges appear solvable, thrusting mobile operators and fixed-broadband providers such as cable companies into uncharted competitive territory. Cable operators have their own road map for increasing capability, as our report quantifies, such as increasing cable’s spectral bandwidth. However, this requires reducing the length of coaxial cables and making large new investments to extend fiber closer to homes. Cable companies could use mmWave in some scenarios, explaining Charter’s 5G research efforts. Just as long-distance telephony, once a thriving business separate from local telephone service, was obliterated by technology advances, 5G is likely to make the current separation of broadband into fixed and mobile services obsolete.

Despite requiring investments that could run into hundreds of billions of dollars, these new ultradense networks, fueled by small cells and capacious millimeter wave spectrum, will be the railroads of the 21st century. They will unleash the innovation of the likes that we can only begin to imagine. Get ready. The entire communications landscape is about to change.

Peter Rysavy, president of Rysavy Research, has analysed and reported on wireless technologies for over 20 years. See www.rysavy.com. In addition, he will be moderating Massive Broadband Network Densification—Unleashing the Opportunities of 5G.

Take another look at wireless charging

Take another look at wireless charging

The market for delivering power wirelessly over short distances is potentially huge.

The most obvious application is wirelessly charging smartphones. We depend on our smartphones to work all day long. The need to charge them when their batteries are low is a fact of life, but connecting a wired charger is not always convenient or even possible. There are wireless charging pads for the home and office, and wireless charging docks for automobiles, and we are just starting to see wireless charging spots in coffee shops, restaurants, hotels, and airports.

In an ideal world, we wouldn’t even have to think about charging our mobile devices. Infrastructure embedded in the environment would automatically detect our devices, check their battery status, and charge them as needed. This concept is not as far-fetched as it might sound. Such infrastructure has been developed and is starting to be deployed. However, there still isn’t universal support for wireless charging in smartphones, laptops, and wearables.

(There is also another solution that doesn’t require a power outlet. A portable cell phone charger, such as the Flux, can fast-charge a smartphone. However, it’s an additional item to carry around and must also be recharged.)

How the FAA hinders innovation

How the FAA hinders innovation

The civilian drone market was predicted to take off like a rocket. But the market has stalled. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is keeping drone technology bottled up in the U.S. while it continues to move forward in Asia and Europe.

The opportunities for drones are real. Oil companies, electric power utilities, and mobile operators are already using drones to inspect vital infrastructure. Companies including Amazon, Domino’s, and Walmart are serious about putting drones into wider use. Everyone agrees that the industry must prove that drones are safe before they are allowed to deliver small packages to homes. But there is reason to believe that it can be done: Every day in the U.S. there are more than 23,000 commercial airline flights carrying well over 1 million passengers.

For now, the drone market is in a holding pattern. Several drone makers laid off workers over the last 12 months. The FAA recently reported that drone registrations are averaging about 8,300 per week. However, the forecast cited by the FAA in its 2017 annual report would require average weekly sales of more than 23,000 drones.

5 Challenges Confronting Enterprise Drones

5 Challenges Confronting Enterprise Drones

Forecasts for the drone market have been very aggressive.

One research firm predicts sales of drones will exceed $12 billion by 2021. Another says the market for drone-based business services is worth more than $127 billion. And the Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI) predicts that by 2025 the U.S. drone industry will create more than 100,000 jobs and add $82 billion to the economy.

While I’m optimistic about the long-term prospects for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), my research has identified five major factors inhibiting the adoption of drone-based solutions by enterprises:

#1: Today’s drones have limited flight endurance and payload capacity

Today’s drones can only fly for 15 to 30 minutes before they need to swap out or recharge batteries. And while there are drones that can carry payloads up to twenty pounds, five pounds or less is more common. To complicate matters further, there’s an inverse relationship between payload weight and flight endurance: increase the payload and you get less flight time.

Why Isn’t the Drone Market Taking Off

Press Releases

New Datacomm Research Report:
Why Isn’t the Drone Market Taking Off?

New Study Identifies Multiple Fixable Problems

April 18, 2017 – St. Louis, Missouri – The U.S. drone industry has hit an obstacle: The Federal Aviation Administration. Little progress has been made since Congress directed the FAA to accommodate commercial unmanned aircraft five years ago. The FAA is keeping the drone industry occupied developing solutions to problems that don’t yet exist. Congress should limit the FAA’s jurisdiction over drones and give greater authority to the states. That is one conclusion of Datacomm Research’s new 115-page study, A Roadmap for Drone Market Growth, 2017-2025.

“The potential global market for drones is huge and the U.S. should be leading the way, but the FAA’s bureaucracy, timidity, and one-size-fits-all rules are preventing the industry from getting off the ground,” said Ira Brodsky, author of the report. “The FAA wants the industry to develop a comprehensive solution for managing skies filled with drones, when what the industry needs first is experience serving customers while ensuring safety and privacy. The best way to accomplish that is to allow local communities to decide when and where the benefits of drone use outweigh the risks,” he added.